Exploring the use of environment-agent-based models for risk assessment of Great Lakes piping plovers

From the paper

Abstract

The Piping Plover Charadrius melodus is an endangered species of shorebird endemic to North America. This species has been the centre of many modelling studies in the last decade. One model type that has been underused in Piping Plover studies is agent-based modelling, which can be used as an accurate risk assessment tool in simulating effects of anthropogenic activities on a given animal species. Recent innovations in ecological modelling have given rise to the environmental agent-based model (enviro-ABM), which efficiently stores information about spatially indexed environmental cells and treat those as agents. This restricts computation to only focus on environmental cells containing the species we are studying, allowing for a more efficient simulation. Using Python, a high-level programming language popular in scientific computing, we develop an enviro-ABM to provide simulations of Piping Plover hatchling growth during a given breeding season. We experiment with increasing levels of human presence and human exclosure size and observe their effects on the growth rate of the simulated Piping Plover hatchlings. Our simulations showed a clear decrease in Piping Plover growth rate as anthropogenic presence increased in the simulated environment. However, when we added a 100 m human exclosure around the nest, the effects of the anthropogenic presence were mitigated at each level. We conclude that an enviro-ABM can be used to assist with conservation and management decisions, with the caveat that the model be constantly updated and informed with results of field studies, especially those pertaining to foraging and energetics of Piping Plovers.