Space-Safeguarding vs Space-Management: Agent Based Modelling to Assess the Role and Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in COVID-19 Mitigation

From the paper

Abstract

Abstract Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, school closures may have deprived students of crucial opportunities for growth and development. This study is motivated by the challenge of responding to future infectious disease pandemics while minimising the educational and social impacts school closures may have. Specifically, we investigated the efficacy of capacity limits and mandated masking protocols as non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in mitigating the transmission of COVID-19 in a post-secondary setting. Methods We developed an agent-based model (ABM) parameterized with demographic and COVID-19 epidemiological characteristics to simulate the spread of disease within a university community. Model parameters account for the spatiotemporal distribution and movement patterns of the agent population, the exogenous rate of infection, and the nature of agent interactions at specific locations. Results Overall infection rates were reduced when on-campus masking (between − 275% and − 330%) or on-campus capacity limits (between − 40% and − 43%) were implemented. Off-campus capacity limits were ineffective as a sole intervention. The combination of masking and on-campus capacity limits resulted in infection levels higher than when only masking was implemented but lower than when only capacity limits were implemented and in the absence of all restrictions. Among the interventions studied, masking alone was the most effective in reducing the spread of COVID-19. Conclusions The individual implementation of both campus capacity limits and mandated masking influenced the nature of COVID-19 transmission within the university setting, with the latter proving to be much more effective as a sole non-pharmaceutical intervention than the former. Their combined use led to worse outcomes in all modelled scenarios, highlighting the potential benefits of ensuring that lower risk environments remain open. Further research is needed to identify the optimal combination of interventions to strike a balance between alleviating pressure on the healthcare system and ensuring societal well-being.