Co-Designing Watershed Planning: An Agent-Based Model for Participatory Water Governance in Colombia’s Multifunctional Landscapes

From the paper

Abstract

Abstract Water governance is a central sustainability challenge that links ecosystem service (ES) provision, human well-being, and international targets, such as Sustainable Development Goals. However, current water planning tools often overlook two key dimensions: local participation and multiple ES supply. This study addresses this gap by co-developing an agent-based model (ABM) for the Coello River Basin, Colombia, which integrates ES multifunctionality as an important attribute of ecosystems and community willingness to participate (WTP) in conservation. The model links a probit-based estimation of WTP with agent decision rules and recalculates multifunctionality, producing dynamic simulations of land use and governance. The results show that conservation-oriented governance preserved more forest and increased network numbers compared to intensive-use scenarios, while agricultural policies that were market-oriented produced intermediate outcomes. Key findings revealed that high-multifunctionality zones had lower land transformation and stronger community participation, particularly in upper watersheds where riparian forests were prioritized by the stakeholders. By linking ES multifunctionality with community participation, the model demonstrates how resilience capacities, persistence of ecological functions, adaptive local responses, and transformative governance can be operationalized in watershed planning. Beyond the Colombian Andes, this participatory modeling framework offers a transferable approach to reconcile ecological objectives with social realities in socioecological models.