A Model of the Current Geographic Distribution and Predictions of Future Range Shifts of Lentinula edodes in China Under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios.

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Citation abstract

Due to its ecological functions, huge economic benefits, and excellent nutritional and physiological activities, Lentinula edodes is a very popular edible fungus in Asia, especially in China. Changes in the distribution and population of wild L. edodes play an important role in conservation, variety improvements, and breeding. This investigation detected wild L. edodes in 28 provinces and municipalities in China, encompassing approximately 300 regions and natural reserves. MaxEnt analysis of 53 effective distribution locations indicated that host plants, Bio19 (precipitation in the coldest quarter), Bio10 (mean temperature of the warmest quarter), and Bio17 (precipitation in the driest quarter) made the most critical contributions to this model. The areas of suitable and highly suitable habitats were 55.386 × 10 4 km 2 and 88.493 × 10 4 km 2, respectively. Under four climate change scenarios, the L. edodes distribution was predicted to decrease and the suitable habitat area shifted to the north and west of China. The decrease in highly suitable habitat area ranged from 21.155% in the 2070s under the ssp1-2.6 scenario to 90.522% in the 2050s under the ssp3-7.5 scenario. This sharp reduction in habitat areas suggests that we should take measures to prevent the deterioration of the environment and climate and thus to ensure the survival of L. edodes.